Dry-bulk freight market sees broad decline, with most size segments weakening.
Global supply & demand
The DBPI pressure index has softened to 1839.1, a day-over-day decrease of -124 points, indicating a slight easing in overall market pressure. The global laden sailing ratio (LSR) remains at 56%, suggesting that the balance between open tonnage and cargo demand is relatively stable. However, the world port/sea ratio of 0.40 indicates that there is still more tonnage sailing than tied up in ports or anchorages, which could support rates. The laden versus ballast split shows 392M dwt laden versus 302M dwt ballast, reflecting a market where cargo demand is currently matching available supply without significant surplus.
The Panamax segment stands out as the firmest, with rates +40% above balanced levels, driven by strong demand on routes such as East Australia to South Japan. In contrast, the VLOC segment is the softest, at -1% below balanced levels, suggesting weaker demand in its typical trading lanes. The overall trajectory of the market seems influenced by these regional and size-specific dynamics.
Band-by-band breakdown
Every tonnage band we track, in size order — its assessed rate, momentum versus a balanced market, and the load regions driving it. A band still accruing enough tracked activity is shown as building.
0-5K — ~$4612/day ($-308 d/d); 2030 voyages, 3782522 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +15% vs balanced, +2.4% day, -0.8% week (relative to a balanced market).
RUSSIA — ~$6911/day
Supply/demand — 29 ships open (~99k dwt); inbound ballast 99 vs laden 88; ballast-share 53%; demand-pull rel 1.31; scarcity 0.76. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +9% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Astrakhan (PAI 7.2), Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.9), Azov (PAI 3.7). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→IRAN (23 voyages, ~$6007/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (20 voyages, ~$6007/day); RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (25 voyages, ~$6007/day).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$8406/day
Supply/demand — 11 ships open (~43k dwt); inbound ballast 16 vs laden 27; ballast-share 38%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -11% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Floro (PAI 5.1), Rekefjord (PAI 4.9), Drammen (PAI 4.5). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (38 voyages, ~$6007/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (97 voyages, ~$6007/day); SOUTH NORWAY→NETHERLANDS (20 voyages, ~$6007/day).
SWEDEN — ~$7363/day
Supply/demand — 12 ships open (~47k dwt); inbound ballast 12 vs laden 25; ballast-share 35%; demand-pull rel 1.40; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -29% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Oxelosund (PAI 4.5), Solvesborg (PAI 4.0), Varberg (PAI 4.0). Busiest lanes out — SWEDEN→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (12 voyages, ~$4546/day); SWEDEN→NETHERLANDS (15 voyages, ~$4546/day); SWEDEN→GERMANY (19 voyages, ~$4546/day).
NETHERLANDS — ~$8406/day
Supply/demand — 28 ships open (~94k dwt); inbound ballast 18 vs laden 21; ballast-share 44%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.17. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +20% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rotterdam Maasvlakte (PAI 9.4), Rotterdam Waalhaven (PAI 7.8), Vlissingen (PAI 5.2). Busiest lanes out — NETHERLANDS→SWEDEN (18 voyages, ~$4848/day); NETHERLANDS→NORTH NORWAY (6 voyages, ~$4848/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (32 voyages, ~$4848/day).
GERMANY — ~$8406/day
Supply/demand — 14 ships open (~45k dwt); inbound ballast 15 vs laden 22; ballast-share 39%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hamburg (PAI 17.4), Rostock (PAI 13.0), Brake (PAI 6.5). Busiest lanes out — GERMANY→SOUTH NORWAY (21 voyages, ~$5122/day); GERMANY→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (20 voyages, ~$5122/day); GERMANY→GERMANY (38 voyages, ~$5122/day).
5-10K — ~$5651/day ($-133 d/d); 1374 voyages, 7580627 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +3% vs balanced, +1.7% day, +2.4% week (relative to a balanced market).
RUSSIA — ~$10095/day
Supply/demand — 25 ships open (~178k dwt); inbound ballast 109 vs laden 40; ballast-share 71%; demand-pull rel 1.59; scarcity 0.78. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +9% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.0), Azov (PAI 4.2), Yeysk (PAI 3.9). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (32 voyages, ~$8265/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (19 voyages, ~$8265/day); RUSSIA→IRAN (10 voyages, ~$8265/day).
USEC — ~$5933/day
Supply/demand — 5 ships open (~39k dwt); inbound ballast 7 vs laden 7; ballast-share 45%; demand-pull rel 0.94; scarcity 1.00. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +17% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (4 voyages, ~$5049/day); USEC→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$5049/day); USEC→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$5049/day).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$8188/day
Supply/demand — 12 ships open (~70k dwt); inbound ballast 8 vs laden 10; ballast-share 45%; demand-pull rel 1.29; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +60% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rafnes (PAI 4.6), Porsgrunn (PAI 3.5), Rekefjord (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (22 voyages, ~$4978/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (41 voyages, ~$4978/day); SOUTH NORWAY→NETHERLANDS (13 voyages, ~$4978/day).
VIETNAM — ~$6214/day
Supply/demand — 26 ships open (~179k dwt); inbound ballast 11 vs laden 20; ballast-share 38%; demand-pull rel 0.98; scarcity 0.99. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +10% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Ho Chi Minh (PAI 4.6). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→PHILIPPINES (11 voyages, ~$7664/day); VIETNAM→VIETNAM (30 voyages, ~$7664/day); VIETNAM→SOUTH KOREA (2 voyages, ~$7664/day).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$6455/day
Supply/demand — 20 ships open (~154k dwt); inbound ballast 12 vs laden 31; ballast-share 34%; demand-pull rel 1.02; scarcity 1.11. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -14% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surabaya (PAI 4.8), Jakarta (PAI 4.0). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→WEST INDONESIA (51 voyages, ~$8265/day); WEST INDONESIA→EAST INDONESIA (8 voyages, ~$8265/day); WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$8265/day).
10-17.5K — ~$7844/day ($-331 d/d); 481 voyages, 10285159 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +4% vs balanced, -0.2% day, +0.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH JAPAN — ~$11114/day
Supply/demand — 14 ships open (~183k dwt); inbound ballast 35 vs laden 31; ballast-share 52%; demand-pull rel 1.38; scarcity 0.98. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +21% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→THAILAND (10 voyages, ~$11308/day); SOUTH JAPAN→VIETNAM (4 voyages, ~$11308/day); SOUTH JAPAN→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$11308/day).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$12737/day
Supply/demand — 10 ships open (~125k dwt); inbound ballast 11 vs laden 11; ballast-share 49%; demand-pull rel 1.58; scarcity 1.18. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -31% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Jakarta (PAI 5.4). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (6 voyages, ~$9444/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$9444/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$9444/day).
EAST INDONESIA — ~$9880/day
Supply/demand — 2 ships open (~23k dwt); inbound ballast 11 vs laden 13; ballast-share 47%; demand-pull rel 1.23; scarcity 0.96. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +38% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — EAST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (7 voyages, ~$9698/day); EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (5 voyages, ~$9698/day); EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (1 voyages, ~$9698/day).
VIETNAM — ~$9577/day
Supply/demand — 12 ships open (~161k dwt); inbound ballast 7 vs laden 10; ballast-share 45%; demand-pull rel 1.19; scarcity 1.06. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +75% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Ho Chi Minh (PAI 5.3). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→SOUTH JAPAN (9 voyages, ~$8431/day); VIETNAM→UNITED STATES PACIFIC (1 voyages, ~$8431/day); VIETNAM→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$8431/day).
USEC — ~$11731/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~61k dwt); inbound ballast 12 vs laden 18; ballast-share 45%; demand-pull rel 1.46; scarcity 1.19. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -14% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→SOUTH ARGENTINA (2 voyages, ~$9915/day); USEC→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$9915/day); USEC→NIGERIA (1 voyages, ~$9915/day).
17.5-30K — ~$11337/day ($-753 d/d); 26 voyages, 2610536 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +19% vs balanced, -0.1% day, +10.4% week (relative to a balanced market).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (5 voyages, ~$13917/day); WEST INDONESIA→USEC (1 voyages, ~$13917/day).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -20% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (3 voyages, ~$6661/day).
FINLAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -9% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — FINLAND→USEC (3 voyages, ~$6823/day).
EAST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — EAST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$13917/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +13% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tianjin (PAI 4.8). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→WEST INDONESIA (4 voyages, ~$14000/day).
30-47K — ~$12263/day ($-120 d/d); 83 voyages, 10195483 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +12% vs balanced, +1.9% day, -6.3% week (relative to a balanced market).
NEW ZEALAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +17% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tauranga (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — NEW ZEALAND→NORTH CHINA (11 voyages, ~$9697/day); NEW ZEALAND→SOUTH KOREA (4 voyages, ~$9697/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +7% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: San Lorenzo (PAI 8.3), Rosario (PAI 8.1), La Plata (PAI 6.0). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→MOROCCO (9 voyages, ~$12421/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→USEC (4 voyages, ~$12421/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→ALGERIA (3 voyages, ~$12421/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -9% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Caofeidian (PAI 4.2). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MID CHINA (33 voyages, ~$15444/day); NORTH CHINA→UNITED STATES PACIFIC (3 voyages, ~$15444/day).
SOUTH JAPAN
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -9% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→MEXICO (4 voyages, ~$15444/day).
THAILAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +4% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — THAILAND→USEC (2 voyages, ~$12268/day).
47-55K — ~$12032/day ($-778 d/d); 55 voyages, 6088237 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +1% vs balanced, -1.8% day, -3.7% week (relative to a balanced market).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Busiest lanes out — PERU→WEST INDONESIA (1 voyages, ~$5825/day); PERU→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$5825/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -16% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Huanghua (PAI 8.5), Caofeidian (PAI 7.1), Qinhuangdao (PAI 5.9). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MID CHINA (37 voyages, ~$18003/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -27% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (8 voyages, ~$16962/day).
FRANCE
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -33% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — FRANCE→PHILIPPINES (2 voyages, ~$5941/day).
JORDAN
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +100% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — JORDAN→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$9878/day).
55-68K — ~$14285/day ($-660 d/d); 84 voyages, 19465730 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +10% vs balanced, -1.0% day, -12.8% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +9% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 6.7). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→BANGLADESH (6 voyages, ~$14663/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surigao (PAI 6.8). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (23 voyages, ~$19622/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +24% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (7 voyages, ~$6751/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +29% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$8988/day).
EGYPT MED
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +3% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Damietta (PAI 5.9), El Dekheila (PAI 4.7), Alexandria (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — EGYPT MED→USEC (5 voyages, ~$17287/day).
68-90K — ~$20393/day ($+133 d/d); 198 voyages, 53651778 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +40% vs balanced, -0.6% day, -1.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +5% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 17.1). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (23 voyages, ~$19519/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (20 voyages, ~$19519/day).
EAST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +4% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Muara Berau Anch (PAI 4.7). Busiest lanes out — EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (5 voyages, ~$21871/day); EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (24 voyages, ~$21871/day).
WC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +29% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — WC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (11 voyages, ~$17321/day).
EC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +4% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Paradip (PAI 6.8). Busiest lanes out — EC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (9 voyages, ~$21871/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +23% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Caofeidian (PAI 7.4), Huanghua (PAI 5.4), Qinhuangdao (PAI 4.6). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→SOUTH CHINA (44 voyages, ~$21871/day); NORTH CHINA→UNITED STATES PACIFIC (7 voyages, ~$21871/day).
90-120K — ~$22253/day ($-257 d/d); 53 voyages, 21680589 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +35% vs balanced, -0.7% day, -10.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hay Point (PAI 5.2), Gladstone (PAI 4.8). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (15 voyages, ~$22211/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (10 voyages, ~$22211/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→VIETNAM (7 voyages, ~$22211/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 5.9). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→TAIWAN (6 voyages, ~$22211/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$22211/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (3 voyages, ~$22211/day).
120-190K — ~$24205/day ($-3887 d/d); 159 voyages, 125562799 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +15% vs balanced, -11.0% day, -14.7% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -5% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 12.9), Dampier (PAI 9.2), Port Walcott (PAI 5.5). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (78 voyages, ~$24877/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (23 voyages, ~$24877/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (19 voyages, ~$24877/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +3% (ballast interest broadly steady). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$30468/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$30468/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -50% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (5 voyages, ~$10247/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$16497/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -5% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 5.6). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (7 voyages, ~$24877/day).
190-250K — ~$23840/day ($-2514 d/d); 137 voyages, 119390633 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: -1% vs balanced, -4.8% day, -25.5% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 18.6), Port Walcott (PAI 4.6). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (66 voyages, ~$26942/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (18 voyages, ~$26942/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (11 voyages, ~$26942/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$11679/day); GUINEA→EC INDIA (5 voyages, ~$11679/day); GUINEA→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$11679/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 3.6). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$19338/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$26942/day).
Outlook (forward view)
Looking ahead, the momentum indicators suggest a mixed picture. While some segments like the 68-90K size band show strong week-over-week momentum (+40% vs balanced), others such as the 120-190K band have weakened significantly (-14.7% week-over-week). The day-over-day ballast-pull trends also indicate that empty ships are building towards certain load zones, which could lead to firming demand in those areas. For instance, the +9% increase in ballast-pull towards South Brazil and the +29% increase towards WC India suggest potential for rate improvements in these regions.
Given these forward signals, it's plausible that the overall market will experience a softening trend over the coming days, particularly in segments that have shown significant weakness like the 190-250K size band. However, specific lanes and size bands with strong leading indicators of demand, such as those mentioned, may firm up. This scenario read is based on current momentum and model signals, not guaranteeing future outcomes but rather providing a directional view based on available data. The dry-bulk market's inherent volatility means that actual developments can diverge from these projections, influenced by unforeseen changes in supply, demand, or other external factors.