Dry-bulk freight market sees broad declines across most tonnage bands, with sentiment weakening.
Global supply & demand
The DBPI pressure index has fallen to 1980.7, down by 704 points day-over-day, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The global LSR (laden sailing ratio) is at 57%, a 1 percentage point decrease from the previous day, suggesting that open tonnage is becoming more balanced. With 200M dwt laden versus 150M dwt ballast, there are signs of supply and demand moving closer to equilibrium. The world port/sea ratio stands at 0.54, below the threshold where it would be considered supportive for rates due to congestion or high cargo activity.
The current market trajectory suggests a balanced world fleet with neither over-tonnaging nor under-tonnaging significantly impacting rates. Kamsarmax vessels are seeing the firmest conditions, led by strong demand on the North Australia to North China route, while Handysize ships face softer conditions. The overall supply and demand balance is reflected in the moderate DBPI level and the relatively stable LSR.
Band-by-band breakdown
Every tonnage band we track, in size order — its assessed rate, momentum versus a balanced market, and the load regions driving it. A band still accruing enough tracked activity is shown as building.
0-5K — ~$5298/day ($-690 d/d); 2078 voyages, 3784791 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +32% vs balanced, +9.3% day (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$8567/day
Supply/demand — 17 ships open (~65k dwt); inbound ballast 8 vs laden 33; ballast-share 24%; demand-pull rel 1.28; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -33% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Floro (PAI 6.3), Rafnes (PAI 4.9), Kragero (PAI 4.2). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (42 voyages, ~$6866/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (82 voyages, ~$6866/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (34 voyages, ~$6866/day).
RUSSIA — ~$10735/day
Supply/demand — 11 ships open (~38k dwt); inbound ballast 37 vs laden 33; ballast-share 49%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 0.87. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -61% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Astrakhan (PAI 7.2), Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.7). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→IRAN (27 voyages, ~$7164/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (16 voyages, ~$7164/day); RUSSIA→RUSSIA (52 voyages, ~$7164/day).
SWEDEN — ~$9823/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~15k dwt); inbound ballast 9 vs laden 26; ballast-share 26%; demand-pull rel 1.46; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Varberg (PAI 4.5), Oxelosund (PAI 4.5), Solvesborg (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out — SWEDEN→GERMANY (23 voyages, ~$6821/day); SWEDEN→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (12 voyages, ~$6821/day); SWEDEN→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (13 voyages, ~$6821/day).
NETHERLANDS — ~$8777/day
Supply/demand — 24 ships open (~78k dwt); inbound ballast 10 vs laden 29; ballast-share 27%; demand-pull rel 1.31; scarcity 1.13. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -29% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rotterdam Maasvlakte (PAI 8.1), Rotterdam Waalhaven (PAI 6.4), Amsterdam (PAI 5.9). Busiest lanes out — NETHERLANDS→SPAIN (15 voyages, ~$7041/day); NETHERLANDS→SWEDEN (16 voyages, ~$7041/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (32 voyages, ~$7041/day).
GERMANY — ~$10735/day
Supply/demand — 11 ships open (~37k dwt); inbound ballast 12 vs laden 23; ballast-share 32%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -14% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hamburg (PAI 19.4), Rostock (PAI 14.9), Brake (PAI 6.4). Busiest lanes out — GERMANY→SOUTH NORWAY (21 voyages, ~$7228/day); GERMANY→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (16 voyages, ~$7228/day); GERMANY→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (16 voyages, ~$7228/day).
5-10K — ~$6305/day ($-1040 d/d); 1369 voyages, 7382319 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +13% vs balanced, +10.9% day (relative to a balanced market).
RUSSIA — ~$12213/day
Supply/demand — 9 ships open (~54k dwt); inbound ballast 22 vs laden 10; ballast-share 55%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.00. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -81% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.0), Kavkaz (PAI 3.9). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (29 voyages, ~$8929/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (16 voyages, ~$8929/day); RUSSIA→IRAN (10 voyages, ~$8929/day).
USEC — ~$5756/day
Supply/demand — 7 ships open (~53k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 7; ballast-share 36%; demand-pull rel 0.75; scarcity 0.97. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -57% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$6260/day); USEC→SOUTH JAPAN (1 voyages, ~$6260/day); USEC→TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (3 voyages, ~$6260/day).
VIETNAM — ~$10311/day
Supply/demand — 19 ships open (~129k dwt); inbound ballast 8 vs laden 9; ballast-share 41%; demand-pull rel 1.35; scarcity 0.94. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -20% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Ho Chi Minh (PAI 5.8). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→PHILIPPINES (15 voyages, ~$7268/day); VIETNAM→SOUTH KOREA (3 voyages, ~$7268/day); VIETNAM→VIETNAM (29 voyages, ~$7268/day).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$8676/day
Supply/demand — 18 ships open (~135k dwt); inbound ballast 7 vs laden 18; ballast-share 32%; demand-pull rel 1.14; scarcity 1.05. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -56% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surabaya (PAI 5.5), Jakarta (PAI 5.1). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→EAST INDONESIA (12 voyages, ~$8207/day); WEST INDONESIA→WEST INDONESIA (52 voyages, ~$8207/day); WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$8207/day).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$5991/day
Supply/demand — 6 ships open (~39k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 18; ballast-share 28%; demand-pull rel 0.79; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rafnes (PAI 4.3), Porsgrunn (PAI 3.5), Mandal (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (20 voyages, ~$8588/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (41 voyages, ~$8588/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (17 voyages, ~$8588/day).
10-17.5K — ~$8301/day ($-1905 d/d); 492 voyages, 10511976 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +21% vs balanced, +13.4% day (relative to a balanced market).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$12819/day
Supply/demand — 7 ships open (~94k dwt); inbound ballast 5 vs laden 5; ballast-share 48%; demand-pull rel 1.54; scarcity 1.21. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -69% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Jakarta (PAI 4.5). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (6 voyages, ~$9505/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH JAPAN (5 voyages, ~$9505/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$9505/day).
VIETNAM — ~$10044/day
Supply/demand — 9 ships open (~121k dwt); inbound ballast 4 vs laden 3; ballast-share 49%; demand-pull rel 1.20; scarcity 1.03. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -43% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→SOUTH JAPAN (9 voyages, ~$8189/day); VIETNAM→UNITED STATES PACIFIC (1 voyages, ~$8189/day); VIETNAM→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$8189/day).
SOUTH JAPAN — ~$10519/day
Supply/demand — 14 ships open (~183k dwt); inbound ballast 15 vs laden 18; ballast-share 46%; demand-pull rel 1.26; scarcity 0.97. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -42% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Fukuyama (PAI 3.6). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→THAILAND (6 voyages, ~$12868/day); SOUTH JAPAN→VIETNAM (5 voyages, ~$12868/day); SOUTH JAPAN→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$12868/day).
EAST INDONESIA — ~$10287/day
Supply/demand — 5 ships open (~61k dwt); inbound ballast 6 vs laden 5; ballast-share 48%; demand-pull rel 1.23; scarcity 0.90. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$9840/day); EAST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$9840/day); EAST INDONESIA→MID CHINA (3 voyages, ~$9840/day).
USEC — ~$11585/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~63k dwt); inbound ballast 7 vs laden 12; ballast-share 44%; demand-pull rel 1.39; scarcity 1.13. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -46% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→SOUTH ARGENTINA (2 voyages, ~$12020/day); USEC→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$12020/day); USEC→COLOMBIA (3 voyages, ~$12020/day).
17.5-30K — ~$12205/day ($-1985 d/d); 19 voyages, 2887643 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +42% vs balanced, +11.8% day (relative to a balanced market).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -44% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (5 voyages, ~$14651/day); WEST INDONESIA→USEC (1 voyages, ~$14651/day).
USEC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -33% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$13272/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -24% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→WC INDIA (1 voyages, ~$7381/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→LEBANON (1 voyages, ~$7381/day).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -33% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (3 voyages, ~$7150/day).
FINLAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -32% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — FINLAND→USEC (3 voyages, ~$12514/day).
30-47K — ~$11384/day ($-1647 d/d); 59 voyages, 13243538 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +11% vs balanced, -1.6% day (relative to a balanced market).
NEW ZEALAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -51% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tauranga (PAI 4.8). Busiest lanes out — NEW ZEALAND→NORTH CHINA (16 voyages, ~$10197/day); NEW ZEALAND→SOUTH KOREA (5 voyages, ~$10197/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -51% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: San Lorenzo (PAI 9.6), Rosario (PAI 6.2), La Plata (PAI 5.3). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→MOROCCO (7 voyages, ~$13340/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→ALGERIA (4 voyages, ~$13340/day).
WEST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -51% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (8 voyages, ~$10197/day).
NORTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -51% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH BRAZIL→SOUTH NORWAY (6 voyages, ~$13340/day).
SOUTH JAPAN
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -62% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→MEXICO (4 voyages, ~$14599/day).
47-55K — ~$14513/day ($-4977 d/d); 52 voyages, 6358568 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +30% vs balanced, +22.1% day (relative to a balanced market).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -50% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→WEST INDONESIA (1 voyages, ~$7913/day); PERU→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$7913/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -27% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$13944/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (1 voyages, ~$13944/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -47% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (9 voyages, ~$22762/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -69% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Huanghua (PAI 9.2), Tianjin (PAI 6.2), Qinhuangdao (PAI 6.2). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MID CHINA (32 voyages, ~$20204/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -47% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→COMORES ISLANDS (3 voyages, ~$22762/day).
55-68K — ~$15638/day ($-3663 d/d); 73 voyages, 22642555 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +37% vs balanced, +21.5% day (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -66% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 7.9). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→BANGLADESH (6 voyages, ~$16159/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→USEC (9 voyages, ~$16159/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -65% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Caofeidian (PAI 8.3), Tianjin (PAI 7.8), Lianyungang (PAI 5.4). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MEXICO (4 voyages, ~$20245/day); NORTH CHINA→NIGERIA (4 voyages, ~$20245/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -48% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (10 voyages, ~$12486/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -45% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$9915/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -60% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surigao (PAI 7.8). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (21 voyages, ~$22084/day).
68-90K — ~$19577/day ($-5277 d/d); 214 voyages, 56271180 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +69% vs balanced, +24.5% day (relative to a balanced market).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -53% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 17.1). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (21 voyages, ~$18588/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (18 voyages, ~$18588/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -48% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (13 voyages, ~$10023/day); UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH JAPAN (13 voyages, ~$10023/day).
EC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -49% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Paradip (PAI 8.0). Busiest lanes out — EC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (10 voyages, ~$25530/day).
WC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -55% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (10 voyages, ~$19014/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -49% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Bunati (PAI 5.6), Taboneo Anch (PAI 5.5). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (51 voyages, ~$25530/day).
90-120K — ~$25122/day ($-6000 d/d); 61 voyages, 25029658 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +83% vs balanced, +19.3% day (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -32% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 4.1), Hay Point (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (20 voyages, ~$27090/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (10 voyages, ~$27090/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→VIETNAM (6 voyages, ~$27090/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -32% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 6.5). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→TAIWAN (6 voyages, ~$27090/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→NORTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$27090/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (3 voyages, ~$27090/day).
WC CANADA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -20% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WC CANADA→NORTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$10808/day).
USEC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -40% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→EC INDIA (2 voyages, ~$13544/day).
120-190K — ~$30318/day ($-9577 d/d); 179 voyages, 136510290 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +82% vs balanced, +41.1% day (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -43% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 17.9), Dampier (PAI 10.5), Port Walcott (PAI 7.7). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (89 voyages, ~$32970/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (29 voyages, ~$32970/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (21 voyages, ~$32970/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -41% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (5 voyages, ~$27902/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$27902/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -64% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (7 voyages, ~$18004/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$13679/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -43% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 5.2). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (7 voyages, ~$32970/day).
190-250K — ~$23246/day ($-21443 d/d); 135 voyages, 120619428 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +47% vs balanced, +6.0% day (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -68% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 20.9), Port Walcott (PAI 6.3). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (66 voyages, ~$25991/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (19 voyages, ~$25991/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (13 voyages, ~$25991/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$15321/day); GUINEA→EC INDIA (4 voyages, ~$15321/day); GUINEA→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$15321/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -64% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 4.1). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$18570/day).
NORTH CHILE
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHILE→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$15321/day).
Outlook (forward view)
Looking ahead, the market momentum signals a mixed outlook. While some bands like 120-190K are showing strong vs-balanced positioning with +82% momentum, others such as 0-5K are softer at +32%. The day-over-day and week-over-week momentum changes indicate that rates might continue to adjust downward in the shorter term, especially given the weakening ballast-pull trends across most regions. However, specific lanes like North Australia to North China could see firmer conditions due to strong cargo demand.
The world port/sea ratio and LSR direction also hint at a balanced market with potential for rate stability or slight decreases rather than significant increases. Based on these forward signals, the scenario suggests that while some segments might firm up due to specific demand patterns, the overall dry-bulk freight market could be range-bound or experience softening over the coming days and weeks, driven by the balance between supply and demand and the leading indicators of ballast-pull trends. This outlook is grounded in current market momentum and signals, not a guarantee, and reflects a model-based scenario rather than investment advice.