Dry-bulk freight market takes a downturn as DBPI plunges 399 points day-over-day.
Global supply & demand
The dry-bulk freight market is experiencing a significant shift, with the DBPI pressure index dropping to 1581.7, a decline of 399 points day-over-day, indicating a substantial easing in market pressure. The global LSR (laden sailing ratio) has decreased by 2 percentage points to 55%, reflecting an increase in open tonnage. The laden-vs-ballast split shows 71M dwt laden versus 58M dwt ballast, suggesting a slight surplus of available capacity. The world port/sea ratio stands at 0.51, which is below the threshold of 1.0, indicating more tonnage is currently sailing than tied up in ports or anchorages.
The Capesize segment is the firmest, with rates 31% above balanced levels, driven by strong demand on the North Australia to North China route. In contrast, the Handymax segment is the softest, trading 16% below balanced levels. The overall trajectory of the market appears to be downward, with most tonnage bands experiencing day-over-day declines in rates.
The global supply and demand balance is influencing the market's direction, with the decrease in DBPI and LSR suggesting a reduction in pressure on freight rates. However, specific segments like Capesize are bucking this trend due to regional demand patterns.
Band-by-band breakdown
Every tonnage band we track, in size order — its assessed rate, momentum versus a balanced market, and the load regions driving it. A band still accruing enough tracked activity is shown as building.
0-5K — ~$4587/day ($-711 d/d); 2063 voyages, 3769903 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +11% vs balanced, -5.4% day (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$10680/day
Supply/demand — 15 ships open (~57k dwt); inbound ballast 7 vs laden 32; ballast-share 21%; demand-pull rel 1.30; scarcity 1.24. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -42% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Floro (PAI 6.3), Rafnes (PAI 4.9), Kragero (PAI 4.2). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (42 voyages, ~$6773/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (82 voyages, ~$6773/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (34 voyages, ~$6773/day).
RUSSIA — ~$9330/day
Supply/demand — 1 ships open (~4k dwt); inbound ballast 2 vs laden 1; ballast-share 30%; demand-pull rel 1.14; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -98% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Astrakhan (PAI 7.2), Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.7). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→IRAN (27 voyages, ~$2560/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (16 voyages, ~$2560/day); RUSSIA→RUSSIA (52 voyages, ~$2560/day).
SWEDEN — ~$11640/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~15k dwt); inbound ballast 9 vs laden 26; ballast-share 24%; demand-pull rel 1.42; scarcity 1.15. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Varberg (PAI 4.5), Oxelosund (PAI 4.5), Solvesborg (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out — SWEDEN→GERMANY (22 voyages, ~$6951/day); SWEDEN→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (13 voyages, ~$6951/day); SWEDEN→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (11 voyages, ~$6951/day).
NETHERLANDS — ~$9543/day
Supply/demand — 22 ships open (~75k dwt); inbound ballast 10 vs laden 28; ballast-share 26%; demand-pull rel 1.16; scarcity 0.89. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -29% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rotterdam Maasvlakte (PAI 8.1), Rotterdam Waalhaven (PAI 6.4), Amsterdam (PAI 5.9). Busiest lanes out — NETHERLANDS→SPAIN (15 voyages, ~$7024/day); NETHERLANDS→SWEDEN (16 voyages, ~$7024/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (32 voyages, ~$7024/day).
GERMANY — ~$13063/day
Supply/demand — 10 ships open (~32k dwt); inbound ballast 12 vs laden 22; ballast-share 30%; demand-pull rel 1.59; scarcity 1.03. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -14% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hamburg (PAI 19.4), Rostock (PAI 14.9), Brake (PAI 6.4). Busiest lanes out — GERMANY→SOUTH NORWAY (21 voyages, ~$7208/day); GERMANY→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (16 voyages, ~$7208/day); GERMANY→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (16 voyages, ~$7208/day).
5-10K — ~$5165/day ($-1140 d/d); 1366 voyages, 7377469 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: -9% vs balanced, -9.2% day (relative to a balanced market).
RUSSIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.0), Kavkaz (PAI 3.9). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (29 voyages, ~$3493/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (16 voyages, ~$3493/day); RUSSIA→IRAN (10 voyages, ~$3493/day).
USEC — ~$7296/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~31k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 4; ballast-share 36%; demand-pull rel 0.87; scarcity 0.92. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -57% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$4907/day); USEC→SOUTH JAPAN (1 voyages, ~$4907/day); USEC→TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (3 voyages, ~$4907/day).
VIETNAM — ~$4577/day
Supply/demand — 10 ships open (~62k dwt); inbound ballast 1 vs laden 3; ballast-share 34%; demand-pull rel 0.55; scarcity 1.04. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -90% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Ho Chi Minh (PAI 5.8). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→PHILIPPINES (15 voyages, ~$3493/day); VIETNAM→SOUTH KOREA (3 voyages, ~$3493/day); VIETNAM→VIETNAM (29 voyages, ~$3493/day).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$9204/day
Supply/demand — 6 ships open (~49k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 6; ballast-share 34%; demand-pull rel 1.10; scarcity 1.21. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -81% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surabaya (PAI 5.5), Jakarta (PAI 5.1). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→EAST INDONESIA (12 voyages, ~$5398/day); WEST INDONESIA→WEST INDONESIA (52 voyages, ~$5398/day); WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$5398/day).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$7390/day
Supply/demand — 6 ships open (~39k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 18; ballast-share 26%; demand-pull rel 0.88; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rafnes (PAI 4.3), Porsgrunn (PAI 3.5), Mandal (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (20 voyages, ~$8298/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (41 voyages, ~$8298/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (17 voyages, ~$8298/day).
10-17.5K — ~$6240/day ($-2061 d/d); 491 voyages, 10385863 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: -11% vs balanced, -14.7% day (relative to a balanced market).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$10882/day
Supply/demand — 5 ships open (~70k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 0; ballast-share 53%; demand-pull rel 1.30; scarcity 1.17. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -81% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Jakarta (PAI 4.5). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (6 voyages, ~$5430/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH JAPAN (5 voyages, ~$5430/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$5430/day).
VIETNAM
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→SOUTH JAPAN (9 voyages, ~$4685/day); VIETNAM→UNITED STATES PACIFIC (1 voyages, ~$4685/day); VIETNAM→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$4685/day).
SOUTH JAPAN — ~$10041/day
Supply/demand — 11 ships open (~148k dwt); inbound ballast 11 vs laden 10; ballast-share 49%; demand-pull rel 1.20; scarcity 0.90. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -58% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Fukuyama (PAI 3.6). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→THAILAND (6 voyages, ~$11506/day); SOUTH JAPAN→VIETNAM (5 voyages, ~$11506/day); SOUTH JAPAN→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$11506/day).
EAST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$4685/day); EAST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$4685/day); EAST INDONESIA→MID CHINA (3 voyages, ~$4685/day).
USEC — ~$7680/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~63k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 10; ballast-share 39%; demand-pull rel 0.92; scarcity 1.11. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -77% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→SOUTH ARGENTINA (2 voyages, ~$10048/day); USEC→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$10048/day); USEC→COLOMBIA (3 voyages, ~$10048/day).
17.5-30K — ~$9456/day ($-2749 d/d); 19 voyages, 2887643 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: -1% vs balanced, -18.0% day (relative to a balanced market).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -79% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (5 voyages, ~$9674/day); WEST INDONESIA→USEC (1 voyages, ~$9674/day).
USEC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -58% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$10297/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -88% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→WC INDIA (1 voyages, ~$6187/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→LEBANON (1 voyages, ~$6187/day).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -87% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (3 voyages, ~$6187/day).
FINLAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -32% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — FINLAND→USEC (3 voyages, ~$13114/day).
30-47K — ~$11666/day ($+282 d/d); 59 voyages, 13243538 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +8% vs balanced, -0.1% day (relative to a balanced market).
NEW ZEALAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -68% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tauranga (PAI 4.8). Busiest lanes out — NEW ZEALAND→NORTH CHINA (16 voyages, ~$11205/day); NEW ZEALAND→SOUTH KOREA (5 voyages, ~$11205/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -85% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: San Lorenzo (PAI 9.6), Rosario (PAI 6.2), La Plata (PAI 5.3). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→MOROCCO (7 voyages, ~$12584/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→ALGERIA (4 voyages, ~$12584/day).
WEST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -68% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (8 voyages, ~$11205/day).
NORTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -85% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH BRAZIL→SOUTH NORWAY (6 voyages, ~$12584/day).
SOUTH JAPAN
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -86% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→MEXICO (4 voyages, ~$13972/day).
47-55K — ~$10472/day ($-4041 d/d); 52 voyages, 6358568 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: -16% vs balanced, -19.9% day (relative to a balanced market).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→WEST INDONESIA (1 voyages, ~$7488/day); PERU→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$7488/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -80% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$9919/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (1 voyages, ~$9919/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (9 voyages, ~$12858/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -94% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Huanghua (PAI 9.2), Tianjin (PAI 6.2), Qinhuangdao (PAI 6.2). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MID CHINA (32 voyages, ~$14328/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→COMORES ISLANDS (3 voyages, ~$12858/day).
55-68K — ~$14511/day ($-1127 d/d); 73 voyages, 22642555 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +22% vs balanced, +11.5% day (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -84% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 7.9). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→BANGLADESH (6 voyages, ~$15105/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→USEC (9 voyages, ~$15105/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -86% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Caofeidian (PAI 8.3), Tianjin (PAI 7.8), Lianyungang (PAI 5.4). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MEXICO (4 voyages, ~$18635/day); NORTH CHINA→NIGERIA (4 voyages, ~$18635/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -55% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (10 voyages, ~$12696/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -75% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$8836/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -88% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surigao (PAI 7.8). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (21 voyages, ~$20305/day).
68-90K — ~$15788/day ($-3789 d/d); 213 voyages, 56190563 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +29% vs balanced, -2.5% day (relative to a balanced market).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -84% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 17.1). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (21 voyages, ~$15821/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (18 voyages, ~$15821/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -76% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (13 voyages, ~$8921/day); UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH JAPAN (13 voyages, ~$8921/day).
EC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -90% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Paradip (PAI 8.0). Busiest lanes out — EC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (10 voyages, ~$21370/day).
WC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (10 voyages, ~$9191/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -90% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Bunati (PAI 5.6), Taboneo Anch (PAI 5.5). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (51 voyages, ~$21370/day).
90-120K — ~$18695/day ($-6427 d/d); 61 voyages, 25029658 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +23% vs balanced, -15.9% day (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -88% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 4.1), Hay Point (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (20 voyages, ~$19578/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (10 voyages, ~$19578/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→VIETNAM (6 voyages, ~$19578/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -88% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 6.5). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→TAIWAN (6 voyages, ~$19578/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→NORTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$19578/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (3 voyages, ~$19578/day).
WC CANADA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WC CANADA→NORTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$10557/day).
USEC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -50% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→EC INDIA (2 voyages, ~$15228/day).
120-190K — ~$22625/day ($-7693 d/d); 177 voyages, 134938217 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +31% vs balanced, +3.3% day (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -92% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 17.9), Dampier (PAI 10.5), Port Walcott (PAI 7.7). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (88 voyages, ~$24584/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (29 voyages, ~$24584/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (21 voyages, ~$24584/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -86% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (5 voyages, ~$20062/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$20062/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (7 voyages, ~$12981/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$12981/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -92% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 5.2). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (6 voyages, ~$24584/day).
190-250K — ~$16395/day ($-6851 d/d); 134 voyages, 119840106 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: -6% vs balanced, -30.9% day (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -90% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 20.9), Port Walcott (PAI 6.3). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (65 voyages, ~$17092/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (19 voyages, ~$17092/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (13 voyages, ~$17092/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$14578/day); GUINEA→EC INDIA (4 voyages, ~$14578/day); GUINEA→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$14578/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 4.1). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$14578/day).
NORTH CHILE
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHILE→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$14578/day).
Outlook (forward view)
Looking ahead, the dry-bulk freight market is expected to continue its downward trajectory over the coming days and weeks, driven by softening momentum across most tonnage bands. The week-over-week and day-over-day momentum indicators are predominantly negative, with the exception of a few segments like the 55-68K band, which is showing a +22% vs-balanced positioning. The per-lane 7-day ballast-pull trend is also indicating thinning interest in many load zones, leading to softening demand.
The world port/sea ratio and LSR direction are supporting this bearish outlook, as they suggest an increasing surplus of available capacity. While some bands like the 120-190K segment show a +31% vs-balanced positioning, the overall market signals point towards a firming in only specific, niche segments, with the broader market likely to remain range-bound or soften further. This scenario read is based on model outputs and momentum indicators, not investment advice, and actual market movements may vary.