Dry-bulk freight rates surge as global supply-demand balance shifts, with DBPI pressure index jumping 214 points day-over-day to 1795.2.
Global supply & demand
The dry-bulk freight market is experiencing a notable shift in its global supply-demand balance, reflected in the significant day-over-day increase of the DBPI pressure index to 1795.2, a level above the neutral mark of 1000. This surge indicates a tightening market where demand for cargo transportation is outpacing available shipping capacity. The Global LSR (laden sailing ratio) has dropped to 52%, down 3 percentage points day-over-day, suggesting that there are more ships at sea without cargo than there are laden vessels, which could lead to increased competition among shipowners for available cargoes and potentially softer rates in the near term if this trend continues. However, the current world port/sea ratio of 0.67 suggests that there is still a significant amount of tonnage tied up in ports or anchorage, waiting for cargo or undergoing maintenance, which can support rates by limiting effective supply.
The laden versus ballast split shows 34M dwt laden vs 32M dwt ballast, indicating a relatively balanced fleet utilization but with a slight bias towards ships carrying cargo. This balance, combined with the DBPI increase, points to a market that is experiencing upward pressure on rates due to stronger demand or reduced supply. Notably, certain tonnage bands like Kamsarmax are seeing firmer conditions, led by routes such as NORTH AUSTRALIA → NORTH CHINA, indicating specific areas of strength within the broader market.
Band-by-band breakdown
Every tonnage band we track, in size order — its assessed rate, momentum versus a balanced market, and the load regions driving it. A band still accruing enough tracked activity is shown as building.
0-5K — ~$5384/day ($+797 d/d); 2056 voyages, 3756351 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +28% vs balanced, +11.0% day, +11.0% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$9782/day
Supply/demand — 15 ships open (~57k dwt); inbound ballast 6 vs laden 31; ballast-share 20%; demand-pull rel 1.23; scarcity 1.23. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -50% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Floro (PAI 6.3), Rafnes (PAI 4.9), Kragero (PAI 4.2). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (42 voyages, ~$8709/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (82 voyages, ~$8709/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (34 voyages, ~$8709/day).
RUSSIA — ~$9194/day
Supply/demand — 0 ships open (~0k dwt); inbound ballast 2 vs laden 1; ballast-share 31%; demand-pull rel 1.15; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -98% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Astrakhan (PAI 7.2), Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.7). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→IRAN (27 voyages, ~$3428/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (16 voyages, ~$3428/day); RUSSIA→RUSSIA (52 voyages, ~$3428/day).
NETHERLANDS — ~$9270/day
Supply/demand — 22 ships open (~75k dwt); inbound ballast 10 vs laden 25; ballast-share 27%; demand-pull rel 1.16; scarcity 0.88. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -29% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rotterdam Maasvlakte (PAI 8.1), Rotterdam Waalhaven (PAI 6.4), Amsterdam (PAI 5.9). Busiest lanes out — NETHERLANDS→SPAIN (15 voyages, ~$8815/day); NETHERLANDS→SWEDEN (16 voyages, ~$8815/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (32 voyages, ~$8815/day).
SWEDEN — ~$11007/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~15k dwt); inbound ballast 6 vs laden 21; ballast-share 23%; demand-pull rel 1.38; scarcity 1.22. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Varberg (PAI 4.5), Oxelosund (PAI 4.5), Solvesborg (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out — SWEDEN→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (13 voyages, ~$7906/day); SWEDEN→GERMANY (21 voyages, ~$7906/day); SWEDEN→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (11 voyages, ~$7906/day).
GERMANY — ~$12387/day
Supply/demand — 10 ships open (~32k dwt); inbound ballast 8 vs laden 16; ballast-share 30%; demand-pull rel 1.55; scarcity 1.08. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -43% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hamburg (PAI 19.4), Rostock (PAI 14.9), Brake (PAI 6.4). Busiest lanes out — GERMANY→SOUTH NORWAY (21 voyages, ~$7814/day); GERMANY→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (16 voyages, ~$7814/day); GERMANY→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (16 voyages, ~$7814/day).
5-10K — ~$6277/day ($+1112 d/d); 1360 voyages, 7367466 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +11% vs balanced, +10.4% day, +10.4% week (relative to a balanced market).
RUSSIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.0), Kavkaz (PAI 3.9). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (29 voyages, ~$4605/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (16 voyages, ~$4605/day); RUSSIA→IRAN (10 voyages, ~$4605/day).
USEC — ~$7829/day
Supply/demand — 2 ships open (~16k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 3; ballast-share 38%; demand-pull rel 0.98; scarcity 0.94. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -57% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$6326/day); USEC→SOUTH JAPAN (1 voyages, ~$6326/day); USEC→TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO (3 voyages, ~$6326/day).
VIETNAM — ~$4386/day
Supply/demand — 10 ships open (~62k dwt); inbound ballast 1 vs laden 2; ballast-share 36%; demand-pull rel 0.55; scarcity 0.97. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -90% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Ho Chi Minh (PAI 5.8). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→PHILIPPINES (15 voyages, ~$4605/day); VIETNAM→SOUTH KOREA (3 voyages, ~$4605/day); VIETNAM→VIETNAM (29 voyages, ~$4605/day).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$8108/day
Supply/demand — 6 ships open (~49k dwt); inbound ballast 2 vs laden 1; ballast-share 39%; demand-pull rel 1.01; scarcity 1.17. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -88% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surabaya (PAI 5.5), Jakarta (PAI 5.1). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→EAST INDONESIA (12 voyages, ~$4605/day); WEST INDONESIA→WEST INDONESIA (52 voyages, ~$4605/day); WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$4605/day).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$7173/day
Supply/demand — 6 ships open (~39k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 18; ballast-share 26%; demand-pull rel 0.89; scarcity 1.26. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -25% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rafnes (PAI 4.3), Porsgrunn (PAI 3.5), Mandal (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (20 voyages, ~$11437/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (41 voyages, ~$11437/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (17 voyages, ~$11437/day).
10-17.5K — ~$7557/day ($+1317 d/d); 489 voyages, 10375120 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +6% vs balanced, +3.3% day, +3.3% week (relative to a balanced market).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Jakarta (PAI 4.5). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (6 voyages, ~$6282/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH JAPAN (5 voyages, ~$6282/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$6282/day).
VIETNAM
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→SOUTH JAPAN (9 voyages, ~$6282/day); VIETNAM→UNITED STATES PACIFIC (1 voyages, ~$6282/day); VIETNAM→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$6282/day).
SOUTH JAPAN — ~$13068/day
Supply/demand — 4 ships open (~54k dwt); inbound ballast 8 vs laden 4; ballast-share 52%; demand-pull rel 1.49; scarcity 1.00. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -69% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Fukuyama (PAI 3.6). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→THAILAND (6 voyages, ~$12946/day); SOUTH JAPAN→VIETNAM (5 voyages, ~$12946/day); SOUTH JAPAN→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$12946/day).
EAST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$6282/day); EAST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$6282/day); EAST INDONESIA→MID CHINA (3 voyages, ~$6282/day).
USEC — ~$9499/day
Supply/demand — 2 ships open (~30k dwt); inbound ballast 3 vs laden 8; ballast-share 40%; demand-pull rel 1.08; scarcity 1.13. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -77% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→SOUTH ARGENTINA (2 voyages, ~$12565/day); USEC→SOUTH KOREA (1 voyages, ~$12565/day); USEC→COLOMBIA (3 voyages, ~$12565/day).
17.5-30K — ~$12116/day ($+2660 d/d); 19 voyages, 2887643 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +29% vs balanced, +6.6% day, +6.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -87% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (5 voyages, ~$12653/day); WEST INDONESIA→USEC (1 voyages, ~$12653/day).
USEC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -76% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$12021/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→WC INDIA (1 voyages, ~$8187/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→LEBANON (1 voyages, ~$8187/day).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -93% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (3 voyages, ~$8187/day).
FINLAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -41% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — FINLAND→USEC (3 voyages, ~$19908/day).
30-47K — ~$11903/day ($+237 d/d); 59 voyages, 13243538 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +8% vs balanced, +0.5% day, +0.5% week (relative to a balanced market).
NEW ZEALAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -86% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tauranga (PAI 4.8). Busiest lanes out — NEW ZEALAND→NORTH CHINA (16 voyages, ~$12144/day); NEW ZEALAND→SOUTH KOREA (5 voyages, ~$12144/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -99% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: San Lorenzo (PAI 9.6), Rosario (PAI 6.2), La Plata (PAI 5.3). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→MOROCCO (7 voyages, ~$10657/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→ALGERIA (4 voyages, ~$10657/day).
WEST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -86% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (8 voyages, ~$12144/day).
NORTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -99% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH BRAZIL→SOUTH NORWAY (6 voyages, ~$10657/day).
SOUTH JAPAN
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -92% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→MEXICO (4 voyages, ~$14116/day).
47-55K — ~$13393/day ($+2921 d/d); 52 voyages, 6358568 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +6% vs balanced, +2.8% day, +2.8% week (relative to a balanced market).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→WEST INDONESIA (1 voyages, ~$10025/day); PERU→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$10025/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -93% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→MID CHINA (1 voyages, ~$13280/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (1 voyages, ~$13280/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (9 voyages, ~$17214/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -98% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Huanghua (PAI 9.2), Tianjin (PAI 6.2), Qinhuangdao (PAI 6.2). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MID CHINA (32 voyages, ~$15493/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→COMORES ISLANDS (3 voyages, ~$17214/day).
55-68K — ~$16796/day ($+2285 d/d); 73 voyages, 22642555 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +39% vs balanced, +27.2% day, +27.2% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -94% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 7.9). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→BANGLADESH (6 voyages, ~$16446/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→USEC (9 voyages, ~$16446/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -94% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Caofeidian (PAI 8.3), Tianjin (PAI 7.8), Lianyungang (PAI 5.4). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MEXICO (4 voyages, ~$20241/day); NORTH CHINA→NIGERIA (4 voyages, ~$20241/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -74% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (10 voyages, ~$16207/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$10641/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -98% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surigao (PAI 7.8). Busiest lanes out — PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (21 voyages, ~$21979/day).
68-90K — ~$18274/day ($+2486 d/d); 213 voyages, 56190563 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +41% vs balanced, +7.4% day, +7.4% week (relative to a balanced market).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -91% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 17.1). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (21 voyages, ~$19172/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (18 voyages, ~$19172/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -90% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (13 voyages, ~$11889/day); UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH JAPAN (13 voyages, ~$11889/day).
EC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -97% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Paradip (PAI 8.0). Busiest lanes out — EC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (10 voyages, ~$23045/day).
WC INDIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WC INDIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (10 voyages, ~$11889/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -97% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Bunati (PAI 5.6), Taboneo Anch (PAI 5.5). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (51 voyages, ~$23045/day).
90-120K — ~$26859/day ($+8164 d/d); 61 voyages, 25029658 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +74% vs balanced, +22.9% day, +22.9% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -93% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 4.1), Hay Point (PAI 3.5). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (20 voyages, ~$28173/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (10 voyages, ~$28173/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→VIETNAM (6 voyages, ~$28173/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -93% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 6.5). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→TAIWAN (6 voyages, ~$28173/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→NORTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$28173/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (3 voyages, ~$28173/day).
WC CANADA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WC CANADA→NORTH JAPAN (4 voyages, ~$14323/day).
USEC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -80% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — USEC→EC INDIA (2 voyages, ~$22136/day).
120-190K — ~$23075/day ($+450 d/d); 177 voyages, 134938217 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +33% vs balanced, +4.0% day, +4.0% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -98% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 17.9), Dampier (PAI 10.5), Port Walcott (PAI 7.7). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (88 voyages, ~$24482/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (29 voyages, ~$24482/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (21 voyages, ~$24482/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -93% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (5 voyages, ~$20177/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$20177/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (7 voyages, ~$16973/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$16973/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -98% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 5.2). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH KOREA (6 voyages, ~$24482/day).
190-250K — ~$19733/day ($+3338 d/d); 134 voyages, 119840106 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +11% vs balanced, -15.9% day, -15.9% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 20.9), Port Walcott (PAI 6.3). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (65 voyages, ~$19733/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (19 voyages, ~$19733/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (13 voyages, ~$19733/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$19733/day); GUINEA→EC INDIA (4 voyages, ~$19733/day); GUINEA→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$19733/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 4.1). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$19733/day).
NORTH CHILE
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHILE→NORTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$19733/day).
Outlook (forward view)
Looking ahead, the market's trajectory is likely to be influenced by the momentum indicators and leading signals such as the 7-day ballast-pull trend. With many regions showing a decline in ballast-pull, it suggests that shipowners are anticipating softer demand or an increase in available tonnage, which could lead to a range-bound or potentially softening market scenario over the coming days and weeks. However, bands with strong vs-balanced positioning and positive momentum, such as those in the 68-90K and 120-190K segments, may continue to firm due to their specific supply-demand dynamics. The world port/sea ratio and LSR direction will be crucial in determining how quickly rates adjust to changes in demand or supply. This scenario read is based on current model outputs and momentum indicators, suggesting a mixed outlook with both firming and softening potential across different segments of the dry-bulk market, but it should not be taken as investment advice.