Dry-bulk freight market stabilizes with mixed signals across segments.
Global supply & demand
The DBPI pressure index has softened to 2139.5, down 65 points day-over-day, indicating a slight easing in global dry-bulk market pressure. The laden sailing ratio (LSR) stands at 57%, a 1 percentage point decrease from the previous day, suggesting that open tonnage is increasing slightly as more ships are ballasting than loading cargo. The world port/sea ratio remains at 0.53, which is supportive of the market but not overly bullish. Capesize vessels are seeing the firmest conditions, particularly on routes from North Australia to North China, while Handysize vessels are experiencing softer conditions.
The overall trajectory suggests that the market is seeking balance, with some segments showing resilience and others weakening. The supply and demand dynamics across different tonnage bands and regions will continue to influence the market's direction. Notably, the 10-17.5K and 120-190K tonnage bands are showing strong momentum, while smaller bands like 0-5K are experiencing softer conditions.
Band-by-band breakdown
Every tonnage band we track, in size order — its assessed rate, momentum versus a balanced market, and the load regions driving it. A band still accruing enough tracked activity is shown as building.
0-5K — ~$4295/day ($-65 d/d); 2562 voyages, 5225739 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +30% vs balanced, -1.0% day, -2.2% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$8107/day
Supply/demand — 12 ships open (~45k dwt); inbound ballast 17 vs laden 29; ballast-share 39%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -15% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rekefjord (PAI 7.5), Drammen (PAI 4.8), Kragero (PAI 4.4). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (56 voyages, ~$5234/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (56 voyages, ~$5234/day); SOUTH NORWAY→NETHERLANDS (31 voyages, ~$5234/day).
NETHERLANDS — ~$6915/day
Supply/demand — 40 ships open (~141k dwt); inbound ballast 12 vs laden 32; ballast-share 31%; demand-pull rel 1.36; scarcity 1.18. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Vlissingen (PAI 9.3), Amsterdam (PAI 8.5), Velsen Noord (PAI 7.2). Busiest lanes out — NETHERLANDS→SPAIN (31 voyages, ~$5078/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH NORWAY (24 voyages, ~$5078/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (49 voyages, ~$5078/day).
RUSSIA — ~$6932/day
Supply/demand — 29 ships open (~101k dwt); inbound ballast 73 vs laden 77; ballast-share 49%; demand-pull rel 1.37; scarcity 0.75. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -9% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Astrakhan (PAI 8.3), Rostov-On-Don (PAI 8.1). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→IRAN (22 voyages, ~$6267/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (18 voyages, ~$6267/day); RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (24 voyages, ~$6267/day).
SPAIN — ~$7140/day
Supply/demand — 11 ships open (~45k dwt); inbound ballast 13 vs laden 23; ballast-share 35%; demand-pull rel 1.41; scarcity 1.08. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santander (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out — SPAIN→NETHERLANDS (17 voyages, ~$4709/day); SPAIN→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (19 voyages, ~$4709/day); SPAIN→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (16 voyages, ~$4709/day).
GERMANY — ~$8107/day
Supply/demand — 15 ships open (~57k dwt); inbound ballast 14 vs laden 18; ballast-share 39%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +17% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hamburg (PAI 18.2), Rostock (PAI 16.8), Brake (PAI 10.6). Busiest lanes out — GERMANY→SOUTH NORWAY (28 voyages, ~$4584/day); GERMANY→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (26 voyages, ~$4584/day); GERMANY→SPAIN (10 voyages, ~$4584/day).
5-10K — ~$6141/day ($-6 d/d); 1794 voyages, 10323729 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +18% vs balanced, -2.1% day, +10.2% week (relative to a balanced market).
RUSSIA — ~$10161/day
Supply/demand — 25 ships open (~168k dwt); inbound ballast 96 vs laden 28; ballast-share 74%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 0.70. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -2% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rostov-On-Don (PAI 6.9), Yeysk (PAI 4.1). Busiest lanes out — RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (27 voyages, ~$9233/day); RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (36 voyages, ~$9233/day); RUSSIA→IRAN (9 voyages, ~$9233/day).
VIETNAM — ~$6742/day
Supply/demand — 19 ships open (~141k dwt); inbound ballast 9 vs laden 19; ballast-share 38%; demand-pull rel 1.06; scarcity 0.98. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→PHILIPPINES (26 voyages, ~$8790/day); VIETNAM→VIETNAM (40 voyages, ~$8790/day); VIETNAM→SOUTH KOREA (4 voyages, ~$8790/day).
SOUTH NORWAY — ~$9347/day
Supply/demand — 5 ships open (~30k dwt); inbound ballast 8 vs laden 11; ballast-share 42%; demand-pull rel 1.47; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +33% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Drammen (PAI 4.3), Eikefet (PAI 4.0). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (35 voyages, ~$7138/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (34 voyages, ~$7138/day); SOUTH NORWAY→SOUTH NORWAY (57 voyages, ~$7138/day).
SOUTH JAPAN — ~$7179/day
Supply/demand — 18 ships open (~119k dwt); inbound ballast 9 vs laden 16; ballast-share 39%; demand-pull rel 1.13; scarcity 1.02. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -10% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Fukuyama (PAI 4.0). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→SOUTH KOREA (28 voyages, ~$7721/day); SOUTH JAPAN→MID CHINA (12 voyages, ~$7721/day); SOUTH JAPAN→VIETNAM (5 voyages, ~$7721/day).
SWEDEN — ~$8987/day
Supply/demand — 7 ships open (~42k dwt); inbound ballast 8 vs laden 15; ballast-share 40%; demand-pull rel 1.42; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +14% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — SWEDEN→SPAIN (12 voyages, ~$6768/day); SWEDEN→MOROCCO (3 voyages, ~$6768/day); SWEDEN→NETHERLANDS (14 voyages, ~$6768/day).
10-17.5K — ~$9332/day ($+889 d/d); 698 voyages, 16700578 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +28% vs balanced, -3.6% day, -6.3% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH JAPAN — ~$14267/day
Supply/demand — 24 ships open (~320k dwt); inbound ballast 18 vs laden 19; ballast-share 47%; demand-pull rel 1.56; scarcity 1.06. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -14% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Fukuyama (PAI 8.9). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH JAPAN→THAILAND (18 voyages, ~$13062/day); SOUTH JAPAN→VIETNAM (12 voyages, ~$13062/day); SOUTH JAPAN→WEST INDONESIA (7 voyages, ~$13062/day).
WEST INDONESIA — ~$14660/day
Supply/demand — 13 ships open (~162k dwt); inbound ballast 14 vs laden 8; ballast-share 52%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.21. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +8% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (13 voyages, ~$10914/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH JAPAN (8 voyages, ~$10914/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$10914/day).
MID CHINA — ~$13159/day
Supply/demand — 20 ships open (~268k dwt); inbound ballast 15 vs laden 15; ballast-share 47%; demand-pull rel 1.44; scarcity 0.97. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +36% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Shanghai (PAI 7.3). Busiest lanes out — MID CHINA→EAST INDONESIA (7 voyages, ~$12735/day); MID CHINA→WC INDIA (5 voyages, ~$12735/day); MID CHINA→COSTA RICA (1 voyages, ~$12735/day).
EAST INDONESIA — ~$11933/day
Supply/demand — 7 ships open (~92k dwt); inbound ballast 9 vs laden 12; ballast-share 43%; demand-pull rel 1.30; scarcity 0.97. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Obi Island (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out — EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (10 voyages, ~$11744/day); EAST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$11744/day); EAST INDONESIA→MID CHINA (5 voyages, ~$11744/day).
VIETNAM — ~$11753/day
Supply/demand — 17 ships open (~234k dwt); inbound ballast 9 vs laden 14; ballast-share 41%; demand-pull rel 1.28; scarcity 1.01. Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Ho Chi Minh (PAI 4.6). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→SOUTH JAPAN (6 voyages, ~$13062/day); VIETNAM→FRANCE (2 voyages, ~$13062/day); VIETNAM→NORTH JAPAN (3 voyages, ~$13062/day).
17.5-30K — ~$11575/day ($-811 d/d); 51 voyages, 3602110 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +39% vs balanced, -5.1% day, -2.1% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +36% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→ALGERIA (2 voyages, ~$7004/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→GAMBIA (3 voyages, ~$7004/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -13% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (7 voyages, ~$13937/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +38% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tianjin (PAI 5.5). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→WEST INDONESIA (8 voyages, ~$14969/day).
FINLAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -32% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — FINLAND→USEC (5 voyages, ~$9067/day).
VIETNAM
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -13% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→SOUTH JAPAN (7 voyages, ~$13937/day).
30-47K — ~$11939/day ($-378 d/d); 99 voyages, 20673568 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +17% vs balanced, -2.9% day, +7.8% week (relative to a balanced market).
NEW ZEALAND
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +8% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tauranga (PAI 6.2). Busiest lanes out — NEW ZEALAND→NORTH CHINA (26 voyages, ~$12751/day); NEW ZEALAND→MID CHINA (7 voyages, ~$12751/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +2% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: San Lorenzo (PAI 28.8), Rosario (PAI 10.9). Busiest lanes out — NORTH ARGENTINA→MOROCCO (9 voyages, ~$15478/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→ALGERIA (7 voyages, ~$15478/day).
WC CANADA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -6% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Vancouver (PAI 6.4). Busiest lanes out — WC CANADA→SOUTH JAPAN (12 voyages, ~$6404/day).
WEST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +8% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Bunbury (PAI 5.6). Busiest lanes out — WEST AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (10 voyages, ~$12751/day).
BALTIC RUSSIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -12% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: St Petersburg (PAI 7.1), Ust-Luga (PAI 6.5). Busiest lanes out — BALTIC RUSSIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (6 voyages, ~$12485/day).
47-55K — ~$16501/day ($+203 d/d); 152 voyages, 10536083 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +57% vs balanced, -2.8% day, -10.0% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +30% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Caofeidian (PAI 13.2), Huanghua (PAI 12.1), Qinhuangdao (PAI 10.6). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→MID CHINA (83 voyages, ~$19632/day); NORTH CHINA→NAMIBIA (2 voyages, ~$19632/day); NORTH CHINA→SOUTH CHINA (15 voyages, ~$19632/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -43% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$13314/day).
SOUTH CHILE
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -100% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH CHILE→NORTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$6644/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -6% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Taboneo Anch (PAI 4.0). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→EAST INDONESIA (16 voyages, ~$19937/day).
VIETNAM
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -6% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — VIETNAM→NORTH CHINA (9 voyages, ~$19937/day).
55-68K — ~$15406/day ($-308 d/d); 123 voyages, 45293000 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +33% vs balanced, -3.2% day, -5.9% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +7% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 13.8), Portocel (PAI 3.9). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→BANGLADESH (11 voyages, ~$16989/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→USEC (17 voyages, ~$16989/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$16989/day).
EAST SOUTH AFRICA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -11% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Durban (PAI 7.6), Richards Bay (PAI 6.9), Port Elizabeth (PAI 5.2). Busiest lanes out — EAST SOUTH AFRICA→NORTH CHINA (12 voyages, ~$13243/day); EAST SOUTH AFRICA→PAKISTAN (12 voyages, ~$13243/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -20% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (9 voyages, ~$9413/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +1% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tianjin (PAI 16.6), Caofeidian (PAI 7.8), Lianyungang (PAI 7.7). Busiest lanes out — NORTH CHINA→PERU (9 voyages, ~$20650/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -14% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→PHILIPPINES (9 voyages, ~$7455/day).
68-90K — ~$18557/day ($-1500 d/d); 338 voyages, 93059220 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +67% vs balanced, -9.0% day, -7.5% week (relative to a balanced market).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +37% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 20.9). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (37 voyages, ~$16348/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (32 voyages, ~$16348/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +16% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Taboneo Anch (PAI 10.5), Bunati (PAI 7.8), Tanjung Pemancingan (PAI 4.7). Busiest lanes out — WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (91 voyages, ~$24106/day); WEST INDONESIA→MID CHINA (43 voyages, ~$24106/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +15% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH JAPAN (19 voyages, ~$12281/day); UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (17 voyages, ~$12281/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +6% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 27.8), Paranagua (PAI 8.0), Rio Grande (PAI 4.5). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (11 voyages, ~$22627/day).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +37% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hay Point (PAI 11.8), Gladstone (PAI 8.8), Abbot Point (PAI 5.1). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (28 voyages, ~$16348/day).
90-120K — ~$24341/day ($+2407 d/d); 124 voyages, 48557222 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +79% vs balanced, -0.7% day, -12.9% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +8% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Gladstone (PAI 6.0), Port Hedland (PAI 5.3), Hay Point (PAI 5.2). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (32 voyages, ~$24341/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→VIETNAM (13 voyages, ~$24341/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (10 voyages, ~$24341/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +8% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 12.1). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (16 voyages, ~$24341/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→NORTH JAPAN (13 voyages, ~$24341/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→TAIWAN (10 voyages, ~$24341/day).
WEST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +8% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — WEST AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$24341/day).
120-190K — ~$33697/day ($+934 d/d); 305 voyages, 235061826 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +95% vs balanced, -0.9% day, +23.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +4% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 30.6), Port Walcott (PAI 12.7), Dampier (PAI 11.7). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (151 voyages, ~$36760/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (45 voyages, ~$36760/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (46 voyages, ~$36760/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +20% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Kamsar (PAI 10.0). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (13 voyages, ~$22266/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +4% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 6.6). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (8 voyages, ~$33249/day).
PERU
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +25% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out — PERU→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$11893/day).
WEST SOUTH AFRICA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +23% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Saldanha (PAI 5.9). Busiest lanes out — WEST SOUTH AFRICA→NORTH CHINA (5 voyages, ~$23333/day).
190-250K — ~$31375/day ($-4340 d/d); 231 voyages, 208565763 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +78% vs balanced, +3.5% day, -1.9% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -18% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 28.1), Port Walcott (PAI 8.7), Dampier (PAI 7.4). Busiest lanes out — NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (98 voyages, ~$32705/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (34 voyages, ~$32705/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (25 voyages, ~$32705/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +11% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Kamsar (PAI 5.9). Busiest lanes out — GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (17 voyages, ~$24091/day); GUINEA→SOUTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$24091/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull +13% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 7.8). Busiest lanes out — SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (10 voyages, ~$33935/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal — 7-day ballast-pull -18% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out — EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (6 voyages, ~$32705/day).
Outlook (forward view)
Based on the forward signals present in the data, it appears that the dry-bulk market may firm over the coming days and weeks, driven by increasing ballast-pull trends in key load zones such as North Australia, West Indonesia, and East Australia. The week-over-week momentum is positive for most bands, particularly the larger tonnage segments like 120-190K and 90-120K, which are positioned well above their balanced levels. However, smaller bands like 0-5K may continue to experience softening due to decreasing ballast-pull trends. The world port/sea ratio and LSR direction also suggest that the market is not yet overly bearish. This scenario read is based on model output and momentum indicators, and it should be noted that actual market outcomes can differ. As such, this outlook represents a potential directional call rather than a guarantee of future market performance.