Dry-bulk freight market edges higher on Capesize strength, but smaller sizes soften.
Global supply & demand
The DBPI pressure index has retreated to 1996.7, a neutral level, after dropping by 30 points day-over-day, indicating a slight easing in overall market tension. The global LSR (laden sailing ratio) remains steady at 57%, suggesting that the world fleet is currently balanced, with neither a significant surplus nor shortage of open tonnage. The laden versus ballast split shows 368M dwt laden versus 275M dwt ballast, further supporting this view of balance. The world port/sea ratio of 0.53 indicates that there is still more tonnage sailing than tied up in ports or anchorages, which is generally supportive for rates.
The Capesize segment stands out as the firmest, led by strength on the North Australia to North China route, where demand is outpacing supply. This contrasts with smaller sizes like Coasters, which are seeing softer conditions due to weaker demand relative to their available supply. The overall trajectory of the market suggests that while there may be pockets of strength, particularly in specific routes and segments, the broader trend is towards a more balanced state after recent fluctuations.
Band-by-band breakdown
Every tonnage band we track, in size order - its assessed rate, momentum versus a balanced market, and the load regions driving it. A band still accruing enough tracked activity is shown as building.
0-5K - ~$4270/day ($+15 d/d); 2434 voyages, 5158010 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +23% vs balanced, -4.9% day, -5.4% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH NORWAY - ~$7478/day
Supply/demand - 14 ships open (~51k dwt); inbound ballast 21 vs laden 39; ballast-share 35%; demand-pull rel 1.55; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +40% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rekefjord (PAI 7.9), Kragero (PAI 4.6), Drammen (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (58 voyages, ~$6120/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (62 voyages, ~$6120/day); SOUTH NORWAY→NETHERLANDS (31 voyages, ~$6120/day).
NETHERLANDS - ~$6578/day
Supply/demand - 53 ships open (~179k dwt); inbound ballast 11 vs laden 21; ballast-share 36%; demand-pull rel 1.37; scarcity 1.14. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Vlissingen (PAI 9.8), Amsterdam (PAI 9.2), Velsen Noord (PAI 7.7). Busiest lanes out - NETHERLANDS→SPAIN (29 voyages, ~$4950/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH NORWAY (24 voyages, ~$4950/day); NETHERLANDS→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (50 voyages, ~$4950/day).
RUSSIA - ~$5850/day
Supply/demand - 28 ships open (~101k dwt); inbound ballast 72 vs laden 82; ballast-share 47%; demand-pull rel 1.22; scarcity 0.77. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -5% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Astrakhan (PAI 9.1), Rostov-On-Don (PAI 8.1). Busiest lanes out - RUSSIA→IRAN (27 voyages, ~$6120/day); RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (16 voyages, ~$6120/day); RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (20 voyages, ~$6120/day).
SPAIN - ~$7126/day
Supply/demand - 17 ships open (~68k dwt); inbound ballast 18 vs laden 19; ballast-share 44%; demand-pull rel 1.48; scarcity 1.00. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +100% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Gijon (PAI 4.2). Busiest lanes out - SPAIN→NETHERLANDS (21 voyages, ~$4768/day); SPAIN→SOUTH UNITED KINGDOM (21 voyages, ~$4768/day); SPAIN→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (17 voyages, ~$4768/day).
GERMANY - ~$7694/day
Supply/demand - 23 ships open (~84k dwt); inbound ballast 12 vs laden 19; ballast-share 39%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -8% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hamburg (PAI 19.7), Rostock (PAI 17.6), Brake (PAI 10.0). Busiest lanes out - GERMANY→SOUTH NORWAY (26 voyages, ~$4824/day); GERMANY→NORTH UNITED KINGDOM (26 voyages, ~$4824/day); GERMANY→SPAIN (9 voyages, ~$4824/day).
5-10K - ~$5722/day ($-178 d/d); 1754 voyages, 10116065 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +8% vs balanced, -2.5% day, -5.8% week (relative to a balanced market).
RUSSIA - ~$9962/day
Supply/demand - 30 ships open (~211k dwt); inbound ballast 91 vs laden 28; ballast-share 74%; demand-pull rel 1.58; scarcity 0.70. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -8% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Rostov-On-Don (PAI 7.3), Yeysk (PAI 4.2). Busiest lanes out - RUSSIA→WEST TURKEY (27 voyages, ~$9015/day); RUSSIA→NORTH TURKEY (35 voyages, ~$9015/day); RUSSIA→IRAN (12 voyages, ~$9015/day).
VIETNAM - ~$5334/day
Supply/demand - 25 ships open (~175k dwt); inbound ballast 7 vs laden 16; ballast-share 36%; demand-pull rel 0.84; scarcity 0.98. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -12% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - VIETNAM→PHILIPPINES (28 voyages, ~$6427/day); VIETNAM→SOUTH KOREA (4 voyages, ~$6427/day); VIETNAM→VIETNAM (28 voyages, ~$6427/day).
SOUTH NORWAY - ~$7549/day
Supply/demand - 7 ships open (~50k dwt); inbound ballast 6 vs laden 9; ballast-share 42%; demand-pull rel 1.19; scarcity 1.30. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -40% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Drammen (PAI 4.2), Eikefet (PAI 4.2). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH NORWAY→GERMANY (37 voyages, ~$5179/day); SOUTH NORWAY→DENMARK (31 voyages, ~$5179/day); SOUTH NORWAY→NETHERLANDS (17 voyages, ~$5179/day).
SOUTH JAPAN - ~$9956/day
Supply/demand - 7 ships open (~49k dwt); inbound ballast 14 vs laden 16; ballast-share 45%; demand-pull rel 1.57; scarcity 1.14. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +56% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Fukuyama (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH JAPAN→SOUTH KOREA (30 voyages, ~$8200/day); SOUTH JAPAN→MID CHINA (12 voyages, ~$8200/day); SOUTH JAPAN→THAILAND (3 voyages, ~$8200/day).
WEST INDONESIA - ~$7300/day
Supply/demand - 21 ships open (~158k dwt); inbound ballast 10 vs laden 22; ballast-share 36%; demand-pull rel 1.16; scarcity 1.11. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -38% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Surabaya (PAI 5.4). Busiest lanes out - WEST INDONESIA→WEST INDONESIA (74 voyages, ~$8529/day); WEST INDONESIA→EAST INDONESIA (12 voyages, ~$8529/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH JAPAN (1 voyages, ~$8529/day).
10-17.5K - ~$8777/day ($-179 d/d); 695 voyages, 16929011 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +21% vs balanced, -0.6% day, +3.2% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH JAPAN - ~$12153/day
Supply/demand - 17 ships open (~233k dwt); inbound ballast 23 vs laden 22; ballast-share 49%; demand-pull rel 1.44; scarcity 1.03. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +10% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Fukuyama (PAI 8.9). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH JAPAN→THAILAND (21 voyages, ~$12751/day); SOUTH JAPAN→VIETNAM (11 voyages, ~$12751/day); SOUTH JAPAN→WEST INDONESIA (8 voyages, ~$12751/day).
WEST INDONESIA - ~$13524/day
Supply/demand - 12 ships open (~144k dwt); inbound ballast 10 vs laden 8; ballast-share 50%; demand-pull rel 1.60; scarcity 1.21. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -9% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (16 voyages, ~$11881/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH JAPAN (9 voyages, ~$11881/day); WEST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$11881/day).
EAST INDONESIA - ~$9252/day
Supply/demand - 4 ships open (~50k dwt); inbound ballast 5 vs laden 11; ballast-share 41%; demand-pull rel 1.09; scarcity 1.10. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -38% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Obi Island (PAI 4.4). Busiest lanes out - EAST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (13 voyages, ~$11870/day); EAST INDONESIA→MID CHINA (8 voyages, ~$11870/day); EAST INDONESIA→NORTH CHINA (6 voyages, ~$11870/day).
MID CHINA - ~$10588/day
Supply/demand - 17 ships open (~227k dwt); inbound ballast 18 vs laden 21; ballast-share 48%; demand-pull rel 1.25; scarcity 0.92. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +6% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Shanghai (PAI 7.4). Busiest lanes out - MID CHINA→SOUTH MALAYSIA (7 voyages, ~$12751/day); MID CHINA→WC INDIA (4 voyages, ~$12751/day); MID CHINA→COSTA RICA (1 voyages, ~$12751/day).
SOUTH MALAYSIA - ~$9629/day
Supply/demand - 5 ships open (~69k dwt); inbound ballast 6 vs laden 6; ballast-share 48%; demand-pull rel 1.14; scarcity 0.91. Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -33% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH MALAYSIA→SOUTH JAPAN (7 voyages, ~$10000/day); SOUTH MALAYSIA→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$10000/day); SOUTH MALAYSIA→NORTH JAPAN (2 voyages, ~$10000/day).
17.5-30K - ~$12380/day ($+721 d/d); 45 voyages, 3950168 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +46% vs balanced, +0.1% day, -0.9% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -4% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tianjin (PAI 6.0). Busiest lanes out - NORTH CHINA→WEST INDONESIA (8 voyages, ~$15672/day); NORTH CHINA→EAST INDONESIA (4 voyages, ~$15672/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -14% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH JAPAN (9 voyages, ~$12464/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH BRAZIL→ALGERIA (2 voyages, ~$6824/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→GAMBIA (3 voyages, ~$6824/day).
FINLAND
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -13% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - FINLAND→USEC (6 voyages, ~$12435/day).
USEC
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -16% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - USEC→WEST INDONESIA (2 voyages, ~$13601/day).
30-47K - ~$12151/day ($-98 d/d); 107 voyages, 21485398 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +17% vs balanced, -0.3% day, -2.4% week (relative to a balanced market).
NEW ZEALAND
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -30% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tauranga (PAI 6.2). Busiest lanes out - NEW ZEALAND→NORTH CHINA (24 voyages, ~$9901/day); NEW ZEALAND→MID CHINA (7 voyages, ~$9901/day).
NORTH ARGENTINA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -16% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: San Lorenzo (PAI 32.2), Rosario (PAI 12.0). Busiest lanes out - NORTH ARGENTINA→MOROCCO (11 voyages, ~$15537/day); NORTH ARGENTINA→ALGERIA (7 voyages, ~$15537/day).
WC CANADA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Vancouver (PAI 8.5). Busiest lanes out - WC CANADA→SOUTH JAPAN (14 voyages, ~$7614/day).
BALTIC RUSSIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -39% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: St Petersburg (PAI 7.9), Ust-Luga (PAI 7.8). Busiest lanes out - BALTIC RUSSIA→SOUTH BRAZIL (8 voyages, ~$13048/day).
USEC
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -11% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: New Orleans (PAI 9.7). Busiest lanes out - USEC→MOROCCO (11 voyages, ~$16703/day).
47-55K - ~$15458/day ($+255 d/d); 128 voyages, 10224550 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +50% vs balanced, -0.4% day, -4.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -34% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Caofeidian (PAI 12.9), Huanghua (PAI 12.4), Qinhuangdao (PAI 11.6). Busiest lanes out - NORTH CHINA→MID CHINA (79 voyages, ~$20058/day); NORTH CHINA→NAMIBIA (2 voyages, ~$20058/day).
SOUTH CHILE
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH CHILE→NORTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$6489/day).
NORTH BRAZIL
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -45% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - NORTH BRAZIL→SOUTH JAPAN (2 voyages, ~$9796/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -45% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (2 voyages, ~$9796/day).
PHILIPPINES
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +21% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out - PHILIPPINES→NORTH CHINA (10 voyages, ~$20058/day).
55-68K - ~$14715/day ($-625 d/d); 119 voyages, 47325901 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +32% vs balanced, -2.2% day, -3.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -5% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 17.1). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH BRAZIL→BANGLADESH (11 voyages, ~$15198/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→USEC (17 voyages, ~$15198/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH MALAYSIA (6 voyages, ~$15198/day).
EAST SOUTH AFRICA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +10% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Richards Bay (PAI 7.8), Durban (PAI 7.7), Port Elizabeth (PAI 6.7). Busiest lanes out - EAST SOUTH AFRICA→NORTH CHINA (17 voyages, ~$13325/day); EAST SOUTH AFRICA→PAKISTAN (14 voyages, ~$13325/day).
PERU
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -29% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - PERU→NORTH CHINA (9 voyages, ~$10107/day).
NORTH CHINA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +5% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Tianjin (PAI 16.6), Caofeidian (PAI 8.1), Lianyungang (PAI 8.0). Busiest lanes out - NORTH CHINA→PERU (8 voyages, ~$21575/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +7% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out - UNITED STATES PACIFIC→PHILIPPINES (9 voyages, ~$7673/day).
68-90K - ~$19063/day ($-791 d/d); 368 voyages, 93228691 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +70% vs balanced, +0.9% day, -6.4% week (relative to a balanced market).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -13% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 24.1). Busiest lanes out - EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (35 voyages, ~$17038/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (32 voyages, ~$17038/day).
WEST INDONESIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -2% (ballast interest broadly steady). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Taboneo Anch (PAI 11.1), Bunati (PAI 8.6), Tanjung Pemancingan (PAI 5.7). Busiest lanes out - WEST INDONESIA→SOUTH CHINA (85 voyages, ~$23538/day); WEST INDONESIA→MID CHINA (41 voyages, ~$23538/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +13% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Santos (PAI 33.8), Paranagua (PAI 9.6), Rio Grande (PAI 5.5). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (11 voyages, ~$22535/day); SOUTH BRAZIL→SOUTH CHINA (8 voyages, ~$22535/day).
UNITED STATES PACIFIC
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +9% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out - UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH KOREA (20 voyages, ~$12969/day); UNITED STATES PACIFIC→SOUTH JAPAN (19 voyages, ~$12969/day).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -13% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Hay Point (PAI 13.8), Gladstone (PAI 9.5), Abbot Point (PAI 5.0). Busiest lanes out - NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (32 voyages, ~$17038/day).
90-120K - ~$22414/day ($-1068 d/d); 122 voyages, 48913849 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +62% vs balanced, -0.1% day, -3.8% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +5% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Gladstone (PAI 5.6), Hay Point (PAI 5.5), Port Hedland (PAI 5.1). Busiest lanes out - NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (33 voyages, ~$23625/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→VIETNAM (14 voyages, ~$23625/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (9 voyages, ~$23625/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +5% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Newcastle (PAI 11.5). Busiest lanes out - EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (17 voyages, ~$23625/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→NORTH JAPAN (12 voyages, ~$23625/day); EAST AUSTRALIA→TAIWAN (10 voyages, ~$23625/day).
WC CANADA
Busiest lanes out - WC CANADA→SOUTH JAPAN (6 voyages, ~$9436/day).
SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +18% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH MOZAMBIQUE→NORTH CHINA (4 voyages, ~$16722/day).
120-190K - ~$29254/day ($+1100 d/d); 311 voyages, 234455534 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +75% vs balanced, -1.1% day, -9.8% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -8% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 29.5), Port Walcott (PAI 13.1), Dampier (PAI 12.5). Busiest lanes out - NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (147 voyages, ~$33540/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (47 voyages, ~$33540/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH CHINA (47 voyages, ~$33540/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +18% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Kamsar (PAI 8.4). Busiest lanes out - GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (14 voyages, ~$13917/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +12% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 4.4). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (7 voyages, ~$23860/day).
PERU
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +0% (ballast interest broadly steady). Busiest lanes out - PERU→NORTH CHINA (7 voyages, ~$11612/day).
WC CANADA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -40% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - WC CANADA→SOUTH KOREA (7 voyages, ~$11612/day).
190-250K - ~$27729/day ($-1578 d/d); 227 voyages, 199874367 kt-miles tracked
Momentum: +57% vs balanced, -0.6% day, -22.6% week (relative to a balanced market).
NORTH AUSTRALIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -21% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Port Hedland (PAI 29.9), Port Walcott (PAI 7.8), Dampier (PAI 7.6). Busiest lanes out - NORTH AUSTRALIA→NORTH CHINA (99 voyages, ~$29561/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (31 voyages, ~$29561/day); NORTH AUSTRALIA→MID CHINA (22 voyages, ~$29561/day).
GUINEA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull +38% (empty ships building toward this load zone (firming)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Kamsar (PAI 4.3). Busiest lanes out - GUINEA→NORTH CHINA (14 voyages, ~$24174/day); GUINEA→SOUTH CHINA (3 voyages, ~$24174/day).
SOUTH BRAZIL
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -12% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Load hubs where cargo is concentrating: Itaguai (PAI 10.3). Busiest lanes out - SOUTH BRAZIL→NORTH CHINA (9 voyages, ~$19385/day).
EAST AUSTRALIA
Leading signal - 7-day ballast-pull -21% (ballast interest thinning here (softening)). Busiest lanes out - EAST AUSTRALIA→SOUTH JAPAN (7 voyages, ~$29561/day).
Outlook (forward view)
Looking ahead, based on momentum indicators and forward signals, the dry-bulk market appears poised to experience a mixed bag of firming and softening trends across different tonnage bands. The week-over-week momentum shows varying degrees of strength or weakness across bands, with some like the 17.5-30K segment seeing positive momentum and others, such as the 190-250K segment, experiencing significant drops. The day-over-day changes in rates and the ballast-pull trends suggest that while some areas are seeing a buildup of empty ships (indicative of potential future demand), others are witnessing a thinning out, which could presage softer conditions.
Given these signals, it seems plausible that the market will remain range-bound for smaller sizes but could see further firming in the Capesize segment, driven by continued strength on key routes like North Australia to North China. The 7-day ballast-pull trends are critical here; where they indicate a buildup of empty ships towards certain load zones, it may foreshadow rate increases as those areas experience tightening supply-demand balances. Conversely, areas with thinning ballast interest might see rates soften. This outlook is based on current model and momentum analysis and should be considered a scenario rather than a prediction or investment advice. The dry-bulk freight market's direction over the coming days and weeks will depend on how these trends evolve and interact with other market factors.